Field Notes
Why We Sometimes Tell You to Stay in the Hotel
Some nights we send a message that says: stay in. Don't come out tonight, the sky is not going to give us anything. It is the part of the job people find strangest, because a tour company that cancels is a tour company that earns nothing that night. It is also the part we are most sure about.
What a cancelled night looks like from the guest's side
You booked a night. You checked the forecast, perhaps more than once. Then, around 24 hours before pickup, a message arrives: conditions look weak, we are not going, here is a full refund or another date of your choice. That is the policy in our terms, and it is a real one. We send briefings two weeks, one week and within 24 hours of your hunt, so by the time a cancellation comes it should not be a surprise.
What we are actually looking at
The decision comes from a few things read together, never one number.
Cloud. The aurora happens roughly 100 km above the ground. A solid layer of cloud between you and it ends the night, however strong the display is. Cloud decides more nights than anything else, which is why we look at it in several directions around Rovaniemi at once.
Activity. The Kp index, and the magnetometer data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, tell us how disturbed the magnetic field is. We explained why that number alone misleads in what the Kp index actually means.
Darkness and moon. A bright moon makes the lights harder to see, but it does not cancel a night. We cover that in the moon phases post.
When cloud is forecast to cover every direction we can reach in a night, and activity is low, there is nowhere to drive to. A hunt can drive a long way to find a gap in the clouds, but it cannot beat a sky that is shut in everywhere.
Why not go anyway
Because the cost falls on you. A hunt runs anywhere from four to twelve hours. Going out on a night with no real chance means hours in the cold, a late return to the hotel, and a night of your trip spent on something that was never going to work. Some operators run every night regardless, since cancelling is a loss and a full van is revenue. We would rather lose the booking than have you spend one of your few nights in Lapland standing in the dark looking at cloud.
There is also a plainer reason. We say we count only what you can see with your own eyes. A company that makes that promise and then takes people out under overcast skies is not keeping it.
What we cannot know
Forecasts for cloud are far more reliable a day ahead than a week ahead. A night that looks poor ten days out can clear, and a night that looks perfect can fill with cloud by evening. So the 24-hour briefing is the one that matters, and the earlier ones are an honest early reading, not a promise either way.
On a marginal night we do not simply cancel. If there is a realistic chance somewhere within reach, we go, and we tell you before you step into the van what the odds look like. Cancelling is for the nights where we cannot find one.
If we cancel, what happens
You choose between a full refund and a different date, at no cost. If you are staying several nights, we suggest you keep more than one night free: a long stay gives the weather more chances to work in your favour, and it is the single best thing you can do for your odds.
If you went out and still saw nothing
That can happen even on a night we thought was promising. If you take part in the full hunt and do not see the aurora with your own eyes, you can join another hunt this season free of charge. The conditions are on the tour page and in the terms.
Planning a trip and want a straight read on your dates? Get in touch. We would rather tell you before you book than after.
Share this article